Forecasting · Polymarket · Epistemics
Mispriced Priors
Notes on trading prediction markets where the crowd is wrong about what the evidence actually says — sharper resolution calls, better-read rules, and the occasional payday.
Latest
View all →
Resolution
What Is a Consensus of Credible Reporting?
The framework for flipping contested geopolitical markets — what “consensus” and “credible” actually mean when UMA resolves a dispute.
Flipped → YES
Pitfall
Reading Market Rules Like a Lawyer
“Must be in-person” is a non-negotiable material fact. The fastest way to lose a Yes position is filling gaps with what’s assumed, not what’s stated.
Resolved → NO
Theory
The P3 Problem: When Two Outlets Disagree
NYT says heads, the BBC says tails, the feed cut out. When credible sources conflict, nobody has a consensus — and the market can’t meaningfully resolve.
50 / 50